Navigating the Ins and Outs of AI

Navigating the Ins and Outs of AI Fall 2026 Commentary

Dear Family and Friends, I hope this letter finds you well. I have been thinking a lot about you lately. By you, I mean all of my clients.

Why?

For one, I am grateful for you. You have invested your money with me – and Rick and the entire Shrier Associates team – to make the most of it and help you to navigate your financial future.

That is an honor. I take it very seriously to grow and preserve your hard- earned savings. I appreciate your trust in my abilities, my experience, and my communication. I will not take it for granted, and I know Rick well enough to speak for him on his dedication to your best interests too. So, thank you.

Second, I am witnessing an inflection point in managing personal finances. Because of the rise of AI, two things are happening quickly:

• Costs are shrinking • Time required for tasks is shrinking These things were already happening, but the pace has accelerated. Ask an AI tool to “create my financial plan,” and you will receive a fairly robust one in return. Write a personalized prompt, and it may even be tailored specifically to you. The same can be said for all kinds of things, like real estate property analysis, creations of estate plans, trusts...you name it.

These are real things that are available at a low-cost in minutes that formerly cost thousands of dollars and weeks – if not months - to create.

Where does my head go with all of this? It goes to, “I need to really get to know the people involved in my business. Less so the software. The people are what will standout in the future, and that includes my clients, my team, and my fund managers.” On the client side, I need to know what your goals are, where you’ve been, where you’re headed, and what’s going to help you get there from a financial perspective.

It’s an exciting time for sure. The tools are at everyone’s disposal. It’s on me

to use them to help you fully achieve our unique goals.

I am up to the challenge.

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On the personal front, the kids and I have had a smooth transition from summer to school. We are able to walk to school where Levi is doing Safety Patrol. He takes his responsibility seriously, and it makes me think he’ll enjoy getting his first job someday. I certainly did.

Maggie (2nd grade) is her usual colorful self. She and I will be participating in RunClub at her school.

The highlight of our fall was a trip to Oregon, the place where I began my investment advisory journey and where Levi was born. My kids attended their first wedding in Oregon, and it was a beautiful one to be a part of.

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As always, your feedback is welcome. What can we do better to serve you?

I hope you enjoy your fall season.

Regards,

Levi and I getting loose in our suits. Maggie and Levi tore up the dance floor that night.

Contents • Commentary

o The Double-Edged Sword of AI

o An Analysts’ View Under the Hood of the S&P 500

• Closing Thoughts

The Double-Edged Sword of AI While we at Shrier spend several hours each week exploring the capabilities of AI in the context of finance, I am also realizing how AI will ultimately steer my focus away from technology.

What I mean is that it is moving so quickly that it will hardly be differentiator for any advisor or stock analyst for long.

With each wave of innovation in the investment world, whether it’s online trading, the rise of transparency and database sophistication in financial reporting, or AI-driven research tools, the question I get asked is: Won’t this make your investment research so much easier?

The answer is almost uniformly, “Yes, in the near-term. But in the long-term, No.”

Why not?

Because the stock market is driven by information, and information is increasingly easy to obtain, organize, and interpret in our high-tech world. The friction involved in obtaining that information is low. For example, new technology may shave a few hours off of stock research, but once the market catches up...any edge is gone.

On the planning side, the edge is gone, too. Client expectations will simply rise higher.

It makes me curious where this is headed.

I suspect as we continue to see AI improve the organization of information, then the future edge in investing will increasingly be the two Ps, and those are: • Patience • People

The Patient investor will have an edge over the impatient one. And the People will be the differentiators that cannot be replicated by AI. That means advisors, the CEOs and workforces running the companies, and the fund managers allocating our capital.

I believe my clients (like you) and I have proven we can be Patient (many letters and years of working together speak to that).

And on the People side, I am proud to say that I have a high-level of confidence in the people connected to our portfolios. In the Growth strategy, for example, I have personally met the managers of our funds for 70% of the portfolio. Another 15% is commodity-related, so the value-add of a manager is less meaningful. The final 15% I have yet to connect with the manager. It’s on my list of to-dos.

An Analysts’ View Under the Hood of the S&P 500 My colleague Rick shared an interesting chart recently. It showed the juxtaposition of the haves and have-nots in the S&P 500.

Not too long ago the S&P 500 hit a record high, an attribute that would make the market appear healthy on the surface.

However, the chart assembled by Redwood Investment Management using Bloomberg data tells a different story.

Shown below, the blue area shows the index headline, while the grey areas show how far each of the 500 companies sits below its own all-time high. That gray area is eye- opening. Over 50% are down more than 20% from their peaks and about 1 in 8 have been cut by more than half.

Sources: Bloomberg, Redwood. Data as of 9/30/2026.

My take: The big winners are dominating the market. At the same time, their businesses are tech-driven and rely heavily on “intangible assets.” These intangible assets are difficult for the market to value. For example, we’ve seen intangibles lose their value rapidly, like during the dot-com bubble. Back then, the market lost 49% from its peak on March 24, 2000 to its bottom on October 9,

As I have pointed out before, we have less exposure to the Magnificent 7 than the S&P 500. And we have greater overall diversification. We may trail it for a time, but I suspect our investments will prove resilient should we experience a tech-driven correction.

Closing Thoughts AI continues to be a theme in my letters. My intent is to leverage it as best I can to capture my clients’ goals aspirations, to organize my investment research, and to combine those things to deliver on your expectations.

Behind-the-scenes at Shrier, Rick and I have started to experiment with planning using software that is AI-driven and 100% integrated with Altruist and our client data, as opposed to software we’ve used in the past that sits outside those platforms. This tight integration will simplify our processes and provide greater clarity into your personal situation. I also expect the simplicity (fewer software tools) adds security to your private data.

Finally, each of the core strategies – Growth, Income, and Balanced – have edged higher this year. I am pleased with our long-term track record for each of these strategies, confident in our holdings today, and optimistic about achieving an ideal blend of growth, income, and resilience going forward.

Please know that you are welcome to reach out anytime to discuss the long-term track record or the holdings in your portfolio at any time.

Links • Summer 2026 Letter to Investors

• Spring 2026 Letter to Investors

• Winter 2026 Letter to Investors

• Summer 2025 Letter to Investors

• Spring 2025 Strategy Updates

Contact Us Shrier Associates LLC

619 Devenwood Way, Clinton, MA 01510 5 Farleigh St. Suite 305, Asheville, NC 28803